Detecting Stationarity of GDP:A Test of Unit Root Tests
Abstract
Despite extensive research of research on unit roots, consensus on several important issues and implications has not emerged to date (Libanio, 2005). There are many series which were being investigated for existence of unit root and for these series, there is conflict between the researcher regarding the existence of unit root. For a given data series it is generally not possible to decide which of unit root tests would be the best suited. The Monte Carlo experiments prove that the performance of unit root tests depends on the type of data generating process (DGP), but for the real data we do not know the true DGP. Hence, we cannot decide which of the tests would perform best for a series. The bootstrap approach of Rudebusch (1993) offers an alternative to measure the performance of unit root test for any real time series with unknown DGP. Rudebusch (1993)’s approach is extended to measure and compare the performance of unit root tests for annual real GDP series of various countries. Our results show that unit root tests have very low ability to discriminate between best fitting trend stationary and difference stationary models for GDP series of most of the countries and that Phillips Perron test is superior to its rivals including Dickey-Fuller, DF-GLS and Ng-Perron tests. The results also support existence of unit root in real GDP series.
Downloads
Copyright (c) 2019 Atiq-ur- Rehman
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
JQM follows an open-access publishing policy and full text of all published articles is available free, immediately upon publication of an issue. The journal’s contents are published and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY 4.0) license. Thus, the work submitted to the journal implies that it is original, unpublished work of the authors (neither published previously nor accepted/under consideration for publication elsewhere). On acceptance of a manuscript for publication, a corresponding author on the behalf of all co-authors of the manuscript will sign and submit a completed Copyright and Author Consent Form.
