Journal of Quantitative Methods

Probing Real Economic Growth through Institutional Quality and Fiscal Policy in Pakistan

2025-07-30T10:30:24+00:00

The current study examined the effect of institutional development and fiscal policy on real economic growth. It employed Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique to address the issue of potential endogeneity, which may arise in the presence of political institutions. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to construct an index of institutional quality. The real economic growth in Pakistan covering the period from 1984 to 2020 provides ample evidences that (i) tax rates have negative and insignificant impacts on real economic growth (ii) government expenditures on social indicators helps in augmenting real growth (iii) link between institutional quality and real economic growth is positive but insignificant (iv) increase in investment pushes up real growth as well as lagged value of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also helps in promoting growth, and (v) trade openness restricts real growth. Accordingly, the study suggested that government should enhance expenditures on social indicators. To fulfill this purpose, there is need to increase tax-to-GDP ratio through expanding the tax base; not the tax rate. Furthermore, there is also a need to restructure certain main political institutions which help to improve economic growth, accountability, equity, security, and transparency.

Asset Index as an Indicator of Household Permanent Income in India: Comparison with Total Expenditure and Income

2025-07-29T11:45:22+00:00

Finding an appropriate proxy of permanent income has always remained a challenge to empirically analyze a diverse range of microeconomic questions. This challenge gets even more complicated in developing economies where adequate and reliable household survey data is limited, to say the least. As the commonly employed measures of economic status, in this case, that is, total consumption expenditure and income are prone to various errors, especially so in developing economies, asset indices, constructed through different methods, are employed as an alternative. The current study attempted to examine how far these measures correspond with each other. More importantly, it also represented the permanent income of households in the context of India through both phases of India Human Development Survey (IHDS). The assumption employed to determine which one of these is a better proxy of permanent income was that the permanent income of households would remain relatively the same over a decade or less. IHDS’s approach of surveying exactly the same households over 7–8 years ensures that which one of these is a better proxy of permanent income can be discerned based on the aforementioned assumption. All these measures were found to be positively correlated with each other to a moderate extent, affirming the relationships explored in the literature. Asset index was found to be a strong and much better proxy of permanent income than the other two. This study highlighted the need to explore the potential in order to employ asset index as a proxy of permanent income in different research contexts, beyond current areas of its application.

Potential Challenges in Logistics Outsourcing and their Impact on Supply Chain Management

2025-07-29T11:07:06+00:00

Logistics outsourcing is one of the common practices of the Supply Chain Management (SCM) and has proven to be effective to build competitive advantages in organizations. The academic literature has contributed to the effectiveness of logistics outsourcing in SCM. However, few studies have addressed the potential challenges faced in effective implementation of the relationship. Therefore, the current study aimed to address the challenges involved in logistics outsourcing and investigated the extent to which these challenges effect supply chain performance. The results revealed that challenges of warehousing, outsourcing inefficiency, and accountability significantly affect supply chain performance of food industries in Karachi. However, loss of control and security and track and trace gaps does not have a significant effect on supply chain performance. This indicates that industries should have a special focus on the challenges of warehousing, efficiency of outsourcing, and accountability in logistics outsourcing.

The dynamic relationship between international tourism and CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis

2025-07-29T11:15:59+00:00

This paper scrutinizes the dynamic relationship between international tourism and CO₂ emissions for the global countries spanning over the period 1990-2018. The study used panel econometric techniques as it accounts for heteroskedasticity and first order autocorrelation problem. Results from fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) model describe that international tourism significantly contributes to the level of CO₂ emissions and energy consumption, urbanization, trade and foreign direct investment have long run relationship with CO₂ emissions. This study uses energy consumption, urbanization, trade and foreign direct investment as control explanatory variables. The long run association between economic growth and CO₂ emissions has been examined through using Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The long run estimates support EKC hypothesis. The study examined the impacts of international tourism on CO₂emissions across developed and developing countries. However, the empirical findings document that, for developed countries tourism leads to increase in carbon emissions while for developing countries tourism leads to reduction in carbon emissions. Finding of the study are important for policy makers and suggest that sustainable tourism management policies, environmental protection policies and lower emissions technology should be promoted in international tourism.

Apple Production of Pakistan: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting

2025-07-29T10:01:28+00:00

Apple is an important and popular fruit because it contains fiber, calories, vitamin C, and multivitamins, all of which are beneficial for human health. The demand for apples is increasing due to an increase in the population of Pakistan. Therefore, it is imperative to forecast apple production and to estimate the future trends of its production and consumption in the country. Hence, this study is concerned with forecasting the apple production of Pakistan. For this purpose, various time series models are fitted on the historical time series data (1958-2017) and the search for the best model is conducted based on the model selection criteria. The results indicate that the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average or ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model is a suitable time series model to forecast the apple production of Pakistan. The assumptions of the selected model are also evaluated. On the basis of the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model, the apple production of Pakistan is forecasted to be 697.651 thousand tons in 2030, under the assumption that no irregular pattern occurs.

New Classical Theory holds in case of Pakistan: An Evidence from Micro data

2025-02-17T14:26:10+00:00

Migration is an active procedure and it plays a vital role in the growth of the country. There are many determinants and factors of migration such as wage, employment, education, age, marriage, and job-related variables (Job search, transfer of job) (Labour Force Survey of Pakistan). The migration may be internal, external, regional, and rural-urban. This study examines the intertemporal analysis of rural-urban migration in Pakistan by using micro data (Labour Force Survey of Pakistan). This study also investigates that “Neo Classical Theory of Migration” holds in case of Pakistan. The dependent variable is migration which is binary or dichotomous, so the objectives of study are estimated by the logistic regression model. The results show that the Neo-classical theory exists in case of Pakistan, and wage is the most significant and positive determinant of migration in Pakistan.

The Outbreak of Covid-19 Pandemic: A Discourse Analysis of Economic Impact in Africa

2025-02-17T11:15:17+00:00

Background: The outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic has brought serious consequences on the socioeconomic conditions of many countries across the globe due to the stringent measures taken to curb its spread by governments at various levels. However, these consequences varied across regions and sectors.

Objective: This study therefore attempts to analyse the trend of Covid-19 and the economic burden caused by the pandemic on 54 African countries using the cross-sectional data of covid-19 update report of 1^st and 11^th November, 2020.

Method: The study employed descriptive statistical techniques as well as discourse analysis approach to analyze the impact of the pandemic on African countries.

Results: Although Africa has not been enormously affected in terms of the incidence and prevalence rates of the covid-19, the findings indicated that the pandemic has significant negative impact on various sectors of African economy notably aviation, education and health which consequently brought a serious setback in the overall growth and development in the region. Also, a strong correlation was found to exist between the number of covid-19 cases and deaths associated with the pandemic.

Conclusion: The fact that the pandemic still exists and some countries have already entered into second wave, the study recommends for additional investment in the health sector in order to sufficiently equip the isolation centers with all necessary facilities to fast-track the treatment process. Also, the study calls for rigorous commitments on the part of governments to invest massively particularly in the highly affected sectors and come up with policies for ease of doing business in the region. This will provide more job opportunities thereby reducing the level of poverty especially in the post covid-19 period.

Impact of Profitability on Trade Credit Supply of Pakistani Firms: A Moderating Role of Financial Distress

2025-02-17T10:58:31+00:00

This research aims to elucidate the relationship between trade credit (supply) and the profitability/growth of non-financial companies in Pakistan. The 386 unbalanced panels listed in Pakistan Stock Exchange between 2004 and 2017 are analyzed through GMM with 3976 annual observations. The research indicated the insignificant relationship between profitability and growth with the net trade credit of non-financial companies. On the other hand, net trade credit positively correlates with return on equity, company size, and age. Financial distress has a significant moderating effect on net trade credit, and firms need to increase return on equity and growth to overcome financial distress.

Triple Bottom Line Corporate Sustainability and Organizational Performance: The Mediation of Employees Work Engagement

2024-05-14T09:50:40+00:00

Management scholars are currently focusing on designing research that could cater the big issues of 21^st century organizations including sustainability. Current research uses and extends Triple Bottom Line perspective that conceptualizes sustainability as comprising of economic, social and environmental dimensions. Though most of the previous research has focused on sustainability as a consequence of innovation and quality, present research contributes to literature by studying corporate sustainability as an antecedent of quality performance and innovation performance. Employees’ work engagement has also been incorporated in the framework as a potential mediator. To test the conceptual framework, a positivist research philosophy was utilized with cross-sectional design and quantitative approach via structured questionnaires. Data was collected from Iron and Steel Industry of Pakistan that has second highest growth rate for year 2017-18, and the responses aggregated to 216 in number. Structural equation modeling was used to validate the constructs through measurement model, and to test the hypotheses through structural model. The results revealed that corporate sustainability (economic, social and environmental) positively influences organizational performance (quality and innovation performance), and employees’ work engagement partially mediates this relationship. In Pakistan, the GDP and the cost of environmental degradation are increasing simultaneously. Current research offers a solution to this problem through suggesting that adopting sustainable practices can help resolve country’s environmental issues without taking a toll on organizational performance. It also explains that corporate sustainability leads to organizational performance through employees’ work engagement, thus providing an effective way to enhance employees’ work engagement as well.

Is this a reality? Occupational stress impacts on Employee Turnover Intention mediated by Democratic Leadership

2023-07-12T09:11:03+00:00

Abstract:

Purpose – Human Resource is an essential asset of any organization. Competent pool of employees imparts their potential for the success and sustainability of the organization but the democracy which prevail in some organizations render the potential of employees and employees suffered stress and anxiety which ultimately lead them towards quitting their jobs.

Design/methodology/approach – Self-administered, and online method for surveying was used the gathering of data of the Pakistani banking sector. The data were collected from the 315 respondents. 400 questionnaires were distributed but get back only 315 responses for analysis.

Findings – The structural model of Smart PLS and construct reliability and validity model were used which inclined towards the significant relationship between the variables. Results show that occupational stress and democratic leadership have contingent effect on the employee turnover intention.

Practical Implications – organizations should eradicate the occupational stress on employees. They should develop the self confidence among the employees. Democracy should be minimized, and employees should be rewarded according to their performance not favoritism. These practices can eliminate the turnover intentions from the mind of employees.

Originality/Value – This study suggests that Occupational stress is the important factors that influence directly on the Employee Turnover Intention and Democratic Leadership also mediated the effect of Occupational stress and Employee turnover intention.