Apple Production of Pakistan A Time Series Modeling and Forecasting: A Time Series Modeling and Forecasting
Abstract
Apple is an important fruit due to its popularity because it contains fiber, calories, Vitamin C, and multivitamins which are beneficial for human health. The demand for apples is increasing due to an increase in the population of a country. Therefore, it is imperative to forecast apple production to observe the current status and to estimate the future trends of a country. This study is concerned with forecasting the apple production of Pakistan. For this purpose, various time series models are fitted on the historical time series data (1958-2017) and search for the best model based on model selection criteria. It is observed that the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (2, 1, 2) model is a suitable time series model for forecasting the apple production of Pakistan. The assumptions of the selected model are also evaluated. On the basis of the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model, we observed that apple production of Pakistan is forecasted to be 697.651 thousand tons in 2030 under the assumption that there is no irregular pattern occurred.
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