Apple Production of Pakistan: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting
Abstract
Apple is an important and popular fruit because it contains fiber, calories, vitamin C, and multivitamins, all of which are beneficial for human health. The demand for apples is increasing due to an increase in the population of Pakistan. Therefore, it is imperative to forecast apple production and to estimate the future trends of its production and consumption in the country. Hence, this study is concerned with forecasting the apple production of Pakistan. For this purpose, various time series models are fitted on the historical time series data (1958-2017) and the search for the best model is conducted based on the model selection criteria. The results indicate that the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average or ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model is a suitable time series model to forecast the apple production of Pakistan. The assumptions of the selected model are also evaluated. On the basis of the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model, the apple production of Pakistan is forecasted to be 697.651 thousand tons in 2030, under the assumption that no irregular pattern occurs.
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References
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